Once again, daring to dart my head out from under the covers, I ventured into our National Post yesterday to see if the world still existed. And it did. But other than a person I had never heard of, but elected nonetheless, had embarrassed herself because of a lack of political savvy [kind of makes one like a girl, these days], and they might or might not have found some wreckage from the rather large plane that seems to have gone missing, my eye fell on what promised to be an informative article about the economy, which was to explain the movement of both the markets and the loonie. Finally, I thought, someone has discovered the magic string!
But I had forgotten about the brave new world we live in, in which words are to do the work of actions, and it turned out merely that the Federal Reserve had issued forth its latest stream of words, which the financial world is to read like tea leaves, while the Fed itself watches the reaction of the financial world. Optics and fake outs. A brave new world indeed.
So what did the Fed forecast they might do? Well, the National Post summed up the direction with this strong opening sentence:
The Federal Reserve will probably end its massive bond-buying program this coming fall, and could start to raise interest rates around six months later, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Wednesday.
I don’t think there was a modal logic symbol for around, but we could add one. So what was actually said?
First, they noted that winter had sucked. Already happened, and we can all readily agree. But then they offered up this:
Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
I think this means we can look forward to higher inflation, which will be better for all, and that fiscal policy will slowly cease to restrain economic growth, as the restraint diminishes. Is this a criticism of past policy? Or was restraining growth the goal of fiscal policy? And even though inflation has been below the “longer-run objective”, it is stable in terms of “longer-term expectations”. I hope that is clear now.
The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases.
Unemployment? No longer our business. Or maybe it is. Here come the modals!
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee’s decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee’s outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
Yeah. We might not do what we said, if we change our minds.
I am pretty sure the next paragraph says that even though they are slowing their pace of asset purchases, they remain committed to being accommodative, until inflation runs at, or is expected to run at 2% – “the Committee will assess progress–both realized and expected–toward its objectives” – and one has achieved “maximum employment”, a new and nicely vague concept, at least to me. Here is the conclusion to that weighty paragraph, with a fine sprinkling of modality:
The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.
I really like the “especially if” and “provided that”. Really gives one confidence, and reminds one of the joke about the desperate search for a one-handed economist.
[It’s okay, we are almost done. Just thought you might like some encouragement.]
The conclusion is equally firm. We are told that:
With the unemployment rate nearing 6-1/2 percent, the Committee has updated its forward guidance. The change in the Committee’s guidance does not indicate any change in the Committee’s policy intentions as set forth in its recent statements.
So as long as the change in forward guidance, which was always meant to just be a signalling game to see what the markets thought, doesn’t indicate any change in policy intentions, then we can rest assured that, if, and especially if, and provided that, importantly, provided that, the Fed will continue to have policies, probably accommodative, and they will most certainly have intentions.
all you can do is laugh… the emperor has no clothes, the Fed Chairpatsy has no clues.
They took out the polished, well spoken, Benny B., and for their “hopefully” controlled demolition of the USD they inserted poor ‘unwatchable’ Patsy Yellen.
And now, since every word she speaks prompts everyone to quickly mentally rehearse their heimlich maneuver training.. her speeches are now merely read. Well, at least by one person… living in Canada…
What an excellent summary Xty 🙂
“Here come the Modals!”… That was good stuff right there!! Not only did you point out how stupid the whole thing is, you even explained the ‘modalular’ forensics of the stupidity for people like me, who for some strange reason really appreciates that kind of thing!!
You’re just the best!
Why thank you – I was pretty pleased to recognize modals right after learning about them – actually, pleased in an unusual way – but instructive. I was going to yawn right past the whole thing, but forensics on the rhetoric is at least entertaining. My dad was firm about removing qualifiers from essays – say something or don’t, essentially – so my antennae are up, I just didn’t know they had a cool other name, if one stretches language a tad.
DP, you watchin’ Duke? Looks like Cinderella brought her dancin’ shoes, lol.
i’m not watching it. i actually find basketball boring as hell. i like playing a NCAA bracket just because it brings out a certain primal yet prideful stupidity in men, and if i go watch some games with friends, lots of beer, red meat, junk food, and Beavis and Butt-head style humor too.
i am however aware of the score, and my prescient prediction that Duke would screw me whether i picked them to win or lose! i picked them to win by the way.
i was trying to find out who said “If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit!” (WC Fields) and found this piece. it is worthwhile, and on topic, and also you can get lost following the links. i even ended up reading some articles written by George Orwell. Xty probably could guess which Orwell article i found first.
clue: he prefered concise language.
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Bullshit
How to tell when someone’s bracket is busted? When they start saying “basketball is boring.”
Haha, just a little elbow to the ribs among friends. 🙂
Fwiw, my daughter is in Auckland, NZ, right now and posting a slew of pics to her facebook. Graduation gift trip with aunt, uncle, and Grandma.
Edit: mrs. O already pitched her bracket too. I don’t do one. I just cheer for Cinderella in every game.
well, there is some truth to that i suppose. i didn’t enter into any pools this year though, so there is no financial interest for me. right now it looks like Duke is going to blow it anyway, so my bracket remains in the shredder hopper. 🙂
i was following links and found this. this concept is what got me in a lot of trouble at the old place. i had no idea that there was actually a name for it…
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Poe%27s_Law
Forensic Linguistics has really grown in the world of Criminal Justice. It’s even admissible in court regarding threat letters, ransom notes, criminal statements and such…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forensic_linguistics
I first ran across forensic linguistics at the intersection of Self-Trained Linguistician (studying the Hebrew and Greek Bible manuscripts) and a Degree in Criminal Justice that had already merged with a tour in the U.S. Army, Military Police.
It’s amazing what they can conclude from examining just the objective pieces of a written document.
I need to learn more about ‘Modal’ness.
thread rejuve since 44 is MIA again.
another attempt. for your amusement and edification, Benford’s law…
http://datagenetics.com/blog/march52012/index.html
Re Benford’s law, which I only pretended to understand, but led me to this second mouse theory:
Stigler’s law of eponymy is a process proposed by University of Chicago statistics professor Stephen Stigler in his 1980 publication “Stigler’s law of eponymy”. In its simplest and strongest form it says: “No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer.” Stigler named the sociologist Robert K. Merton as the discoverer of “Stigler’s law”, consciously making “Stigler’s law” exemplify itself.
This is one of those mornings where Mrs. O is saying “Could you please…just…stop…being so perky in the morning!” Followed by the laser death stare.
Not exactly a morning person, Mrs. O is.
Yoda-Speak, I do, sometimes.
Likewise here. My morning chatter can apparently be a bit nonstop.
Nonstop my morning chatter apparently be.
I don’t think Yoda would like or use the word apparently. What is that ghastly quote from him, something like “there is no try, only do and not do”. A little harsh.
It is harsh. But used it I have, on occasion. With kids, or maybe young accounting staff. Sometimes harsh is called for, as a last ditch attempt at inspiration. Not all is puppy dogs and unicorns, wish though that it were.
And you beat me to the punch on the youtube. Fast, xty is. She didn’t try. She did.
Perky!
We, by the way, having a March snow storm and getting blanketed with about 15cm of powder be. Skiers rejoice will, gardeners weep will.
And hubby likes to quote that line to the kids, when they are already about to snap under pressure. But it is true of many things, and if you don’t commit you won’t succeed.
As I learn daily.
The Manifest Destiny law of eponymy: steal their land and name every thing in it after them.
Examples of eponyms
Several place names, including Black Hawk County, Iowa; the Black Hawk Bridge between Iowa and Wisconsin; and the historical Black Hawk Purchase in Iowa.
Four United States Navy vessels were named USS Black Hawk.
The United States Army Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter.[citation needed]
The Chicago Blackhawks of the National Hockey League indirectly derive their name from Black Hawk. Their first owner, Frederic McLaughlin, was a commander with the 333rd Machine Gun Battalion of the 86th Infantry Division during World War I, nicknamed the “Black Hawk Division” after the war leader. McLaughlin named the hockey team in honor of his military unit.[50]
Black Hawk College, an Illinois community college.
Black Hawk High School, a rural high school in South Wayne, Wisconsin, is named after Chief Black Hawk. Their nickname is the Warriors.
Blackhawk Junior High School, in Bensenville, Illinois.[citation needed]
Blackhawk Country Club, a private golf club in Madison, Wisconsin.
Waterloo Black Hawks – United States Hockey League (USHL) hockey team.[citation needed]
The athletic teams of Prairie du Chien High School in Prairie du Chien, Wisconsin are nicknamed the Blackhawks in his honor.[51]
The athletic teams of Fort Atkinson High School, Wisconsin are named the “Blackhawks” after Black Hawk.[52]
The Atlanta Hawks were known as the Tri-Cities Black Hawks upon the inaugural season of the NBA in Moline, Illinois. This was in reference to the Black Hawk War fought in part in what is now known as the Quad-Cities, a group of cities straddling the Mississippi River in Iowa and Illinois.[citation needed]
The athletic teams of West Aurora High School in Aurora, Illinois are named “Blackhawks” after Chief Black Hawk. The school prominently displays many photos of Chief Black Hawk as well as a lifelike bronze bust in the school library.
I love it in subdivisions, with names like Forestglen, when they have built tract housing all over the forest and the glen.
We have a street near us named Island Park.
I also hate the modern naming of community centres and little parkettes with the names of petty politicians who always insist on using first and sometimes even middle names, and haven’t even died yet. We have a Dick Bell Park, Jim Peplinski Arena etc. Even a Paul Anka Drive, which is just embarrassing. And Victoria everything because we all love an empress.
But yes, we also have lots of indian street names. And we use native indian imagery as our country’s cool image, as though we all have igloos and inukshuks and totem poles all over our lawns. Actually, I do have an inukshuk because we used to go and take large hunks of calcium chloride I think it is, from a quarry kind of near by which I would distribute here and there.
i believe the quarried material is calcium carbonate, aka limestone, unless it contains a large percentage of magnesium (also as carbonate) in which case it is called dolostone, or more commonly dolomite. 🙂
calcium chloride doesn’t last too long in the rain. you might have a bag of it in the garage to melt ice, which it does even better than sodium chloride, aka salt.
oops. forgot to provide a description for the above. it’s an inukshuk. OK spell check, inuksuk! WTF? still not good enough! spell check, u suk. anyway, more information can be found here…
http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.com/en/article/inuksuk-inukshuk/
EO – i’m finally making those pierogis today. damn! spell check can’t read Polish either. well screw it. and here is another picture of that inuksuk, but this one is for hard heads. 🙂
pierogis were excellent. a lot more work than i remembered.
thread rejuve.
You would undoubtedly be right about the rock of which I speak. They use it to make drywall and toothpaste. Here is someone else’s picture of the quarry in Tatlock, Ontario:
I found a picture of my inukshook (bite me spell check), but it is from 2003 and I had a pang because it looks so odd without the f’ing infill house 18″ from the edge of that garden, starting from just about where the inukshuck stands, the one thing unchanged in the intervening 11 years:
It is the “neighbour’ who lives in that infill who shovels snow onto my garden, which I have extended forward, trying to build a wall of flowers between myself and the new reality. It is becoming a metaphor for my life.
with the new information and pictures i will change my opinion. i believe your material is the mineral gypsum, which is composed of calcium sulfate.
and what a lovely inuksuk. 🙂
I jumped threads on you.